The Third-Country Impact of the US-China Trade War on Vietnamese Firms: A Global Value Chain Perspective

时间：2023年7月3日10:30-11:30

地点：科研楼1115室

主讲人：刘润娟，加拿大阿尔伯塔大学商学院商业经济学教授、经济系兼职教授

主持人：郭桂霞，对外经济贸易大学国际经济研究院研究员

题目：The Third-Country Impact of the US-China Trade War on Vietnamese Firms: A Global Value Chain Perspective

主讲人简介：

Runjuan Liu is Professor of Business Economics in the Alberta School of Business and Adjunct Professor of Economics in the Department of Economics at the University of Alberta, Canada. Professor Liu studies the interaction between international trade, economic development, and labor market outcomes, with a focus on understanding the critical impacts of globalization on firms and workers. Her research has been funded by Canadian Social Science and Humanities Research Council, Chinese Ministry of Education Project of Social Science, and Worldwide Universities Network. Her research has been published in top-tier journals such as Journal of International Economics, Journal of International Business Studies, Journal of Economic Geography, and Canadian Journal of Economics, among others. Professor Liu received her Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Toronto, her M.A. in Economics from Peking University, and her B.A. from Nankai University.

摘要：

The trade war between the world’s two largest trading partners - the US and China - has profoundly reshaped the global value chain. In this paper, we study the third-country impact of the US-China trade war on Vietnamese firms by using the comprehensive 2015-2020 Vietnamese Enterprise Survey data and its complementary datasets on outsourcing and foreign investment. Exploring the exogenous tariff changes charged by the US on Chinese imports across industries, we were able to identify the causal impact of the trade war on Vietnamese firm’s exports and imports, outsourcing-related exports and imports of intermediate products, and foreign investment. We find that the trade war leads to an increase in Vietnamese firms’ exports. This export growth is due to both an increase in continuing firms’ exports (intensive margin),and an increase in entry into the export market and a decrease in exit from the export market (extensive margin). Additionally, the trade war has resulted in growth in imports and outsourcing-related exports and imports of intermediate products. All these positive spillovers from the trade war are largely driven by foreign investment in the manufacturing sector. Overall, we provide the first set of empirical evidence confirming many newspaper anecdotes that Vietnam has benefited from the reorganization of the global value chain caused by the US-China trade war.