Gu Xueming, President of the Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, Ministry of Commerce
Sang Baichuan, dean of The Institute of International Economics, University of International Business and Economics
Yu Miaojie, Party Secretary and vice President of The National Institute of Development, Peking University
Guangming Think Tank: What is the overall situation of China's foreign trade since the COVID-19 outbreak?
Gu Xueming: General Secretary Xi Jinping has stressed the need to ensure the smooth operation of the foreign trade industrial chain and supply chain, and stabilize the international market share. In the first half of this year, The overall performance of China's foreign trade imports and exports was better than expected, and responded well to the instructions of the General Secretary. In terms of trade in goods, the total value of imports and exports in the first half of the year was 14.24 trillion yuan, down 3.2% from a year earlier. From the perspective of service trade, from January to May this year, the import and export of knowledge-intensive services reached 809.55 billion yuan, up 8.7 percent.
In the face of the future, our confidence comes from the following aspects: First, China's institutional dividends continue to be released, its many advantages are fully demonstrated, and its foreign trade development has great resilience and great potential. Second, the comprehensive competitive advantage of foreign trade continues to strengthen. The industrial system is complete, the industrial supporting capacity is strong, the infrastructure system is improved, and the supply chain, service chain and value chain formed around the industrial chain are the most complete. Third, we will make targeted efforts to stabilize foreign trade policies. In particular, we will increase support to protect small, medium-sized and micro enterprises and labor-intensive enterprises, and help large backbone foreign trade enterprises solve problems, thus laying a solid foundation for stabilizing foreign trade.
Sang Baichuan: Although the foreign trade pressure is greater, but China has the confidence to stabilize foreign trade. First, the combination of policies to stabilize foreign trade has been solid and effective, helping enterprises with high precision, and new forms of foreign trade, such as cross-border e-commerce and market procurement, have developed rapidly. Second, the fundamentals of the national economy have not been materially damaged, and effective demand and supply capacity remain strong. A more proactive fiscal policy, monetary policy, investment policy and other combined measures will play an important role in stabilizing the macroeconomic performance.
Yu Miaojie: China's foreign trade performance in the first half of this year is due to the steady implementation of foreign trade, foreign investment and investment. In terms of structure, China's exports of consumer products such as mobile phones and laptops have been increasing while foreign countries have stopped production to prevent and control the epidemic. Labor-intensive products such as shoes and hats will also perform well in exports in the second half of the year. From the perspective of GVC, China's position as a core node in GVC, especially the production network in East Asia, is expected to be further consolidated after the epidemic.
Guangming Think Tank: How should enterprises make good use of the universal policy issued by the state, and embark on the road of self-reliant development?
Yu Miaojie: Foreign trade enterprises should focus their efforts on products with competitive advantages, so as to gain more profits. We need to make better use of the country's inclusive policies, make good use of timely declaration, and make good use of trade hedging policies. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMES) should ensure adequate capital flow, especially cash flow, diversify export destinations, specialize products, and actively explore the domestic market. Pure processing trade enterprises should gradually transform to the direction of "processing trade and general trade, international trade and domestic trade combined".
Gu Xueming: In difficult times, foreign trade enterprises need to seek opportunities in the midst of crisis and use wisdom to get the market. On the one hand, we should actively explore the international market. We will take full advantage of the intensive foreign trade policies to stabilize foreign trade and adopt flexible approaches such as cloud negotiation to stabilize the cooperation relationship between upstream and downstream industry chains. On the other hand, to expand sales channels, actively develop the domestic market. We will apply big data, industrial Internet and other technologies to boost consumption.
Sang Baichuan: foreign trade enterprises should strengthen the communication with CCPIT, export credit insurance companies, commercial departments, etc., and get accurate support. We will adjust the supply chain system and establish channels for ensuring the steady supply of raw materials and other investment goods needed for the resumption of work and production. We will vigorously develop diversified markets, diversify trade risks, and cushion the downward pressure of traditional trade markets such as the United States. We will build a new global operation model for cross-border e-commerce, encourage domestic enterprises to use cross-border e-commerce to enter the market of target countries, carry out online sales and procurement of global parts and raw materials, and improve the response speed of enterprises to changes in the international market.
Guangming Think Tank: What is the significance of China's accelerated resumption of production and production to stabilize the global supply chain? What inspiration does this give to the optimization and upgrading of China's industrial structure?
Sang Baichuan: The spread of the epidemic around the world has a serious impact on the global supply chain. China's trade in goods accounts for about 12% of the world's total. Speeding up the resumption of work and production and restoring supply capacity is a strong support for stabilizing the global supply chain.
China is in a critical period of economic restructuring and upgrading, and the short-term impact of the sudden epidemic will not reverse the long-term direction of transformation and upgrading. The purpose of adjusting supply chains in the short term is to ensure that they are stable and reliable, and they must not be taken off the path of global supply chains. In the transformation of the manufacturing industry, we should remain open-minded, strengthen economic and technological cooperation with countries around the world, and consolidate and enhance our position in the global supply chain. In transforming China into a major power in the service sector, we need to further accelerate the opening up of infrastructure sectors such as electricity, civil aviation, railways, postal services and municipal public utilities, continue to promote trade and investment liberalization and facilitation, and better upgrade the industrial structure through opening up and cooperation.
Gu Xueming: In the long run, the epidemic will force the digital transformation and upgrading of related businesses in the upstream and downstream of China's various industries, promote the digital integration and innovative development of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries, and form a new economic production system integrating manufacturing, sales, marketing, channels and logistics supply. We should foster new drivers of economic growth, build new business models and intelligent marketing models, improve the collaborative efficiency of the overall industrial chain, and continuously unleash the potential of industrial development.
Yu Miaojie: The epidemic has had two effects on global trade: insufficient supply and insufficient demand. If a shortage of supply coincides with a shortage of demand, it can lead to a recession.
During the epidemic, China's resumption of work and production was timely and effective, which played an important role in helping the global economy get rid of the virtual reality. At the same time, China has introduced a lot of measures to promote the stability of foreign investment. I believe that foreign companies will find That China is still an ideal place for trade and investment. China's stable social environment, supporting the whole industrial chain, relatively high quality of labor force is irreplaceable advantages. As General Secretary Xi Jinping has stressed, "China will open its arms to provide more market opportunities, investment opportunities and growth opportunities for other countries to achieve common development."
(Project team: Li Xiao, Wang Simin, our reporter)
Source: https://epaper.gmw.cn/gmrb/html/2020-08/13/nw.D110000gmrb_20200813_6-07.htm
