Author: Institute of International Economy Source: Site
Date: 2020-02-25
The impact of the sudden outbreak of pneumonia caused by the novel coronavirus on my country's economy has attracted much attention. Since the World Health Organization (WHO) announced on January 31 that the new coronavirus epidemic was listed as a “PHEIC”, some voices worried about the adverse impact of the epidemic on the Chinese economy have gradually increased. What impact does the epidemic have on the current Chinese economy? The following is the authoritative analysis of teacher Yang Liqiang in our school.
Question 1: Can the economic fundamentals stabilize?
? Short-term interference does not affect long-term trends.
Yang Liqiang, an associate researcher at the Institute of International Economy, University of International Business and Economics, said that measures such as “closing the city”, restricting the movement of personnel, and stopping production and work of enterprises will impact the Chinese economy in the short term, but these measures are conducive to prevention. Control the epidemic. The pent-up demand during the epidemic will rebound in a concentrated manner after the epidemic, leading to an economic recovery. It is expected that my country's economy will gradually pick up in the second half of the year. In the medium and long term, the epidemic will not change the long-term trend of my country's economic development.
Question 2: Can SMEs support it?
? Small and medium-sized enterprises will be under greater pressure. Affected by the epidemic, the Spring Festival holiday is extended, the flow of personnel is restricted, and the resumption of work in various places is delayed. The short-term impact of the epidemic on the Chinese economy is inevitable. In particular, the current decline in consumer demand in the short term has already had a significant impact on the catering, tourism, entertainment and other service industries in many regions. Experts generally believe that market entities that are severely affected by the epidemic are facing greater pressure to survive, especially small and medium-sized manufacturing and service companies that deserve special attention.
Yang Liqiang believes that the decline in consumer demand may cause some small and medium-sized enterprises to have cash flow problems due to lack of orders. It should be noted that the restriction of personnel flow also directly or indirectly leads to an increase in logistics costs across the country. While pushing up prices in the short term, it may also affect the supply chain and post-holiday rework of some enterprises, and raise the production costs of enterprises.
? Focus on helping small and medium-sized enterprises in difficulties Yang Liqiang said that after the epidemic is over, it is recommended to adopt measures such as tax cuts and subsidies to further stimulate consumption, support and help affected service enterprises to resume production and operation, and relieve employment pressure. Through various forms of policy measures, support the most affected manufacturing enterprises and foreign trade enterprises.
Questions 3: How to turn crisis into opportunity in the epidemic?
We should see the potential positive factors. Although the short-term impact of the epidemic on the economy is inevitable, the negative impact should not be overstated. We should see the potential positive factors, such as Some industries are working hard to turn crises into opportunities. "Under the influence of the epidemic, new business formats and new models such as e-commerce, e-government, home office, virtual conference/business, and online teaching will usher in a new round of rapid development." Yang Liqiang believes that based on the Internet, artificial intelligence, and big data The application of cutting-edge technologies will further penetrate and expand into various fields such as public life, business operations, government management, education and training. He pointed out that the improvement and reform of the epidemic prevention and control system and the development of related industries after the epidemic is over will also become an important economic growth point after the epidemic.
Through this epidemic prevention and control battle, the government's governance capabilities will be greatly improved, which will help optimize and improve the business environment in the medium and long term. "Since the outbreak, governments at all levels have adopted the most comprehensive and strict prevention and control measures in a highly responsible attitude towards people’s health. The World Health Organization and many countries have fully affirmed and spoke highly of China’s practices. From protection to patient treatment, to publicity and education, this extremely complex process is just a "big test" and exercise for government departments, and the government's governance capabilities will be improved." Yang Liqiang said.
? Precise measures to deal with the impact Yang Liqiang suggested that during the epidemic, effective measures should be taken to effectively reduce the impact of logistics, and ensure the effective operation of the company's supply chain while ensuring the needs of the people's lives. At the same time, measures can be taken to allow and support qualified enterprises to conduct remote virtual business, such as virtual meetings, home office, etc., to improve the level of e-government convenience.
"At present, there is an urgent need to release positive policy signals, guide public expectations, strengthen confidence in winning the fight against the epidemic, and ensure stable economic development." Yang Liqiang said.
? Do a good job in the mid- and long-term development plan. "In the medium and long term, the growth potential of China's economy has not yet been fully released, there is still more room for system innovation, and my country's macroeconomic policies still have a lot of room for maneuver. China's economy is experiencing After the epidemic and other tests, the ability to resist risks and resilience will surely be further enhanced.
Source: Economic Daily WeChat Official Account
